How Do i Know if my signal as some value.

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arjfca
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How Do i Know if my signal as some value.

Postby arjfca » 05 Jan 2011

Hello expert

Here is a chart of my signal. On paper it look great.

But how do i evaluate the value of it.
Did I over optimise it?

This cover a full year since January 01 2010.

What I don't like is my result is only valid for EUR/USD and for short scale only. I don't use any scalping process. Similar result is not obtained with another pair.

Should I look to produce a universal setup, One that will return similar result with others pairs and other scales?

This is my first signal program, Any comments trully appreciated.

Best wish to all

Martin
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furytrader
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Re: How Do i Know if my signal as some value.

Postby furytrader » 06 Jan 2011

Hi Martin,

Probably the quickest way to evaluate your model is to run it on a time period other than 2010 (or whatever time period you used to check it when you developed it). Are your results similar? As for whether it should work on other currency pairs, part of that answer I think has to do with what the system is attempting to do and it also has to do with the timeframe of the model. I've seen some decent models that only work on one specific market or sector (for example, the S&P 500). Finally, this model appears to trade a lot - did you factor in slippage / commissions?

Good luck!

arjfca
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Re: How Do i Know if my signal as some value.

Postby arjfca » 06 Jan 2011

Hello Furrytrader
Thanks for your input

Good idea, I will try to test it over 2009
Yes i did add 2.5$ for commission and a slippage of 2 pips per trades

Yes it trade a lot, arround 900 entrys. About 33% of entry bring profits, 66% failed,
I trade a fixed amount of 200$ and use some rules to trail position.

I'm working toward reducing the failed entry without affecting to much the profitable one.

Martin


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